7-8-1 YTD.
Slow start but I hope it picks up today. Unfortunately, there is a lot of chalk I like today.
Tennessee (-5')
I have been on Jacksonville both weeks thus far and their defense did not disappoint. They have the AFC's best "D" but are only averaging 200.5. ypg on "O". I think Tennessee can throw the ball on the Jags and get out early.
Tennessee is 5-1 SU/ATS L6 vs. Jax and Jax is 0-4 SUATS their L4 in Music City USA.
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS off a DD loss and 8-2 ATS after a divisional game.
Kansas City (-7')
Both the Texans' and Chiefs' backs are against the wall here with an 0-2 start.
The Chiefs have never really had a great defense in recent years, but they always have been able to force turnovers and the Texans have turned it over 7 times in 2 games.
Priest Holmes looks like he'll go today and I think KC starts to play good football again.
Houston is 1-4 ATS vs non div off a non cover.
KC is 7-2 ATS as a fav of 7.5 or more.
KC is 5-2 ATS off a home loss.
New Orleans (+7)
When a star player is out (Deuce McAllister), I usually bet on that team b/c the team rallies around the new guy and comes together. New Orleans has failed to cover both games thus far, but they have outstatted their opponents in both games as well.
Neither team can really stop the run. The Saints are 31st and the Rams are 29th. However, the Rams are -5 in Turnover Margin and have yet to force 1 takeaway.
New Orleans is 10-6 ATS on the road since 2002.
The Saints are 3-1 SUATS in St. Louis the L4 meetings.
The Rams are 1-7-1 ATS off a fav loss.
Philadelphia (-4')
Philly comes off 2 DD wins and now comes to their first road test against 2-0 Detroit. Jim Johnson (Eagles DC) is going to blitz Joey Harrington from everywhere today and I expect at least 2-3 turnovers to be forced.
The Lions have the #27 pass defense while the Eagles have the #3 pass offense in the league.
Philly is 7-1 ATS in 1st of BB away.
Philly is 20-6 ATS in road games since 2001 and 31-12 since 1999.
Andy Reid has also covered 7 of his L8 on the road.
Denver (-10)
I now that you don't get rich laying DD's the NFL, but I think this could be a slaughter. San Diego is 1-1 and only lost by 6 to the Jets LW, but I still do not think they are a good team. Denver comes back home disgruntled after a tough loss in Jacksonville. However, Denver is the #5 defense in the league and it is the first time this year that SD has faced a top defense. In addition, I think Brees will be too cautious in order to avoid a mistake. He played well in the second half LW and still got pulled by Schottenheimer in favor of Flutie.
SD is 2-9 ATS as a dog of 10 or more points.
SD is 0-3 SUATS L3 @ Denver.
Denver is 13-3 ATS home off a loss.
Denver is 10-4 ATS L14 vs. San Diego.
Seattle (-10)
A lot of people think this line is too high b/c the Niners have been competitive their first 2 games, and that's why I take the big chalk role here.
Seattle is the #8 defense in the NFL and will bring Ken Dorsey back to earth after a decent outing in his first start LW.
Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS vs div opp off BB losses.
Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS vs opp off BB losses.
Tampa Bay (+4)
The Gruden Bowl. Both sides want to win this in the worst way. I know the Bucs' offense has really struggled, but the Raiders haven't been much to write home about either.
The Bucs are 5-3 ATS as a dog under Gruden and the Bucs are 15-7-1 ATS as dogs since 1999.
TB is 7-1 ATS after scoring 6 or less.
TB is 8-2 ATS away off BB losses.
Oakland is 1-9-1 ATS off a non cover.
Oakland is only 2-6-1 ATS at home since LY and 0-5 ATS L5 as home chalk.
May add Indy in a short while, but still deciding.
GL
HD
Slow start but I hope it picks up today. Unfortunately, there is a lot of chalk I like today.
Tennessee (-5')
I have been on Jacksonville both weeks thus far and their defense did not disappoint. They have the AFC's best "D" but are only averaging 200.5. ypg on "O". I think Tennessee can throw the ball on the Jags and get out early.
Tennessee is 5-1 SU/ATS L6 vs. Jax and Jax is 0-4 SUATS their L4 in Music City USA.
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS off a DD loss and 8-2 ATS after a divisional game.
Kansas City (-7')
Both the Texans' and Chiefs' backs are against the wall here with an 0-2 start.
The Chiefs have never really had a great defense in recent years, but they always have been able to force turnovers and the Texans have turned it over 7 times in 2 games.
Priest Holmes looks like he'll go today and I think KC starts to play good football again.
Houston is 1-4 ATS vs non div off a non cover.
KC is 7-2 ATS as a fav of 7.5 or more.
KC is 5-2 ATS off a home loss.
New Orleans (+7)
When a star player is out (Deuce McAllister), I usually bet on that team b/c the team rallies around the new guy and comes together. New Orleans has failed to cover both games thus far, but they have outstatted their opponents in both games as well.
Neither team can really stop the run. The Saints are 31st and the Rams are 29th. However, the Rams are -5 in Turnover Margin and have yet to force 1 takeaway.
New Orleans is 10-6 ATS on the road since 2002.
The Saints are 3-1 SUATS in St. Louis the L4 meetings.
The Rams are 1-7-1 ATS off a fav loss.
Philadelphia (-4')
Philly comes off 2 DD wins and now comes to their first road test against 2-0 Detroit. Jim Johnson (Eagles DC) is going to blitz Joey Harrington from everywhere today and I expect at least 2-3 turnovers to be forced.
The Lions have the #27 pass defense while the Eagles have the #3 pass offense in the league.
Philly is 7-1 ATS in 1st of BB away.
Philly is 20-6 ATS in road games since 2001 and 31-12 since 1999.
Andy Reid has also covered 7 of his L8 on the road.
Denver (-10)
I now that you don't get rich laying DD's the NFL, but I think this could be a slaughter. San Diego is 1-1 and only lost by 6 to the Jets LW, but I still do not think they are a good team. Denver comes back home disgruntled after a tough loss in Jacksonville. However, Denver is the #5 defense in the league and it is the first time this year that SD has faced a top defense. In addition, I think Brees will be too cautious in order to avoid a mistake. He played well in the second half LW and still got pulled by Schottenheimer in favor of Flutie.
SD is 2-9 ATS as a dog of 10 or more points.
SD is 0-3 SUATS L3 @ Denver.
Denver is 13-3 ATS home off a loss.
Denver is 10-4 ATS L14 vs. San Diego.
Seattle (-10)
A lot of people think this line is too high b/c the Niners have been competitive their first 2 games, and that's why I take the big chalk role here.
Seattle is the #8 defense in the NFL and will bring Ken Dorsey back to earth after a decent outing in his first start LW.
Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS vs div opp off BB losses.
Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS vs opp off BB losses.
Tampa Bay (+4)
The Gruden Bowl. Both sides want to win this in the worst way. I know the Bucs' offense has really struggled, but the Raiders haven't been much to write home about either.
The Bucs are 5-3 ATS as a dog under Gruden and the Bucs are 15-7-1 ATS as dogs since 1999.
TB is 7-1 ATS after scoring 6 or less.
TB is 8-2 ATS away off BB losses.
Oakland is 1-9-1 ATS off a non cover.
Oakland is only 2-6-1 ATS at home since LY and 0-5 ATS L5 as home chalk.
May add Indy in a short while, but still deciding.
GL
HD
